Our mental models of mineral depletion - and why they matter
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21701/bolgeomin.130.1.004Keywords:
commodity price trends, mineral depletion, mineral policy, mineral resources, mineral shortagesAbstract
Geologists, economists, policy analysts, and others use two different mental models when assessing depletion and the future availability of mineral commodities. The first, the physical view, relies on estimates of the available exploitable stocks of resources and the speed with which society is likely to consume them. The second, the economic view, uses as its measure of availability differences and trends in real (inflation-adjusted) commodity prices.
This paper examines these two approaches, highlighting the very different implications that they suggest for the nature of depletion, its future threat, and the most effective public policies for coping with this threat. After exploring the shortcomings of each, the paper concludes that the economic view is, for several reasons, the more useful and helpful for understanding mineral depletion and its threat.
Downloads
References
Brooks, D.B. 1976. Mineral supply as a stock. In: Vogely, W.A., and Risser, H.E. (eds.), Economics of the mineral industries (3d ed.). American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc., New York, 127-207.
Gordon, R.B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T.E. 2006. Metal stocks and sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy USA, 103 (5), 1209-1214. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0509498103
Humphreys, D. 2018. Personal correspondence, March 16. Jasiński, D., Meredith, J., and Kirwan, K. 2017. The life cycle impact for platinum group metals and lithium to 2070 via surplus cost potential. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10/03/2018, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11367-017-1329-4
Jordan, B.W., Eggert, R.G., Dixon, B.W., and Carlsen, B.W. 2015. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability. Resources Policy 44, 81-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.02.002
Krautkraemer, J.A. 1998. Nonrenewable resource scarcity. Journal of Economic Literature 36, 2065-2107.
Lokanc, M., Eggert, R., and Redlinger, M. 2015. The Availability of Indium: The Present, Medium Term, and Long Term. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO. https://doi.org/10.2172/1327212
Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., and Behrens, W., III. 1972. The Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York, 205 pp.
Mudd, G.M., and Weng, Z. 2012. Base metals. In: Letcher, T.M., and Scott, J.L. (eds.), Materials for a Sustainable Future. Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK, 11-59. https://doi.org/10.1039/BK9781849734073-00011
Nordhaus, W.D. 1997. Do real-output and real-wage measures capture reality? The history of Lightning suggests not. In: Breshnan, T.F., and Gordon, R.J. (eds.), The Economics of New Goods. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 27-70.
Quote Investigator, 2018, The Stone Age Did Not End Because the World Ran Out of Stones, and the Oil Age Will Not End Because We Run Out of Oil: Quote Investigator website, January 7, 10/04/2018, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/01/07/stone-age/
Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Jr., Bradley, D.C., and Seal, R.R., II. 2017. Critical mineral resources of the United States- An introduction, chap. A of Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Jr., Seal, R.R., II, and Bradley, D.C. (eds.) Critical mineral resources of the United States-Economic and environmental geology and prospects for future supply: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1802, A1-A14, 10/04/2018. https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1802
Skinner, B.J. 1976. A second iron age ahead? American Scientist 64, 158-169.
Tilton, J.E. 2003. On Borrowed Time? Assessing the Threat of Depletion. Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 157 pp.
Tilton, J. E. 2006. Depletion and the long-run availability of mineral commodities. In: Doggett, M.E., and Parry, J.R. (eds.), Wealth Creation in the Minerals Industry: Integrating Science, Business, and Education: Special Publication 12. Society of Economic Geologists, Littleton, CO, 61-70. https://doi.org/10.5382/SP.12.03
Tilton, J.E., Crowson, P.C.F., DeYoung, J.H., Jr.,Eggert, R.G., Ericsson, M., Guzmán, J.I., Humphreys, D., Lagos, G., Maxwell, P., Radetzki, M., Singer, D.A., and Wellmer, F.-W. 2018. Public policy and future mineral supplies. Resources Policy, 10/03/2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.01.006
Tilton J.E., and Guzmán J.I. 2016. Mineral Economics and Policy. Routledge for RFF Press, New York, 255 pp. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315733708
Tilton, J.E., and Lagos, G. 2007. Assessing the long-run availability of copper. Resources Policy 34, 19-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2007.04.001
U. S. Geological Survey. Annual. Mineral Commodity Summaries. U.S. Government Publishing Office, Washington, DC.
Yaksic, A., and Tilton, J.E. 2009. Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium. Resources Policy 34, 185-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.05.002
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
© CSIC. Manuscripts published in both the print and online versions of this journal are the property of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, and quoting this source is a requirement for any partial or full reproduction.
All contents of this electronic edition, except where otherwise noted, are distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. You may read the basic information and the legal text of the licence. The indication of the CC BY 4.0 licence must be expressly stated in this way when necessary.
Self-archiving in repositories, personal webpages or similar, of any version other than the final version of the work produced by the publisher, is not allowed.
