Our mental models of mineral depletion - and why they matter

John E. Tilton

doi:10.21701/bolgeomin.130.1.004

Autores/as

John E. Tilton Colorado School of Mines

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21701/bolgeomin.130.1.004

Palabras clave:

agotamiento de minerales, escasez de minerales, tendencias de los precios de los productos básicos, recursos minerales, política minera

Resumen

Los geólogos, los economistas, los analistas de políticas y otros, utilizan dos modelos mentales diferentes cuando evalúan el agotamiento y la disponibilidad futura de productos minerales. El primero, la visión física, se basa en estimaciones de las existencias de recursos explotables disponibles y de la velocidad con la que es probable que la sociedad los consuma. El segundo, el punto de vista económico, utiliza como medida las diferencias de disponibilidad y las tendencias en los precios reales de los productos (ajustados por la inflación). Este documento examina estos dos enfoques, destacando las muy diferentes implicaciones que sugieren sobre la naturaleza del agotamiento, su amenaza futura y las políticas públicas más efectivas para hacer frente a esta amenaza. Después de explorar las deficiencias de cada uno, el documento concluye que la visión económica es, por varias razones, la más útil para comprender el agotamiento de los minerales y sus amenazas.

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