Detección confirmada de ciclos sedimentarios de forzamiento orbital en el Paleogeno y Jurásico en depth domain, usando Tasas de Hallazgos Falsos y espectros de probabilidad bayesiana
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21701/bolgeomin.131.2.001Palabras clave:
probabilidad bayesiana, cicloestratigrafía, ration de detección falsa, análisis espectralResumen
D e manera habitual, se ha supuesto que los fondos espectrales de potencia en clicloestratigrafía se ajustan a un modelo autorregresivo de primer orden (AR1). Vaughan et al. (2011, Paleoceanography) señaló que un método de ajuste de fondos espectrales más flexible y sin sesgo, además de ajuste de niveles de confianza para pruebas de frecuencias múltiples, debería ser obligatorio en la búsqueda de picos espectrales significativos en depth domain. Para complacer estos requerimientos, se combinan ajustes Smoothed Window Averaging (Promedio de Ventana Suavizada) para encontrar fondos espectrales con False Discovery Rates (FDR, Tasa de Hallazgos Falsos) para establecer niveles de confianza, y se aplican a series temporales cicloestratigráficas previamente publicadas de siete formaciones oligocenas y jurásicas. De manera adicional, los espectros de probabilidad bayesiana aportan un método alternativo de detección de ciclicidad periódica.
En las siete formaciones hay sub-secciones asociadas a los picos espectrales que exceden el 5% FDR, en cuatro formaciones incluso exceden el 0.01% FDR. Alta probabilidad bayesiana, en las mismas frecuencias de estos picos espectrales de potencia significativos, apoya la inferencia de que se ha detectado ciclicidad periódica. La prevalencia de detección confirmada de ciclicidad periódica entra en conflicto con la afirmación de Vaughan et al. (2011): “casi con total certeza la gran mayoría de las detecciones de ciclos … en la literatura sobre estratigrafía son falsas”. En publicaciones previas, picos espectrales que exceden el nivel estándar del 95% eran considerados significativos, por lo que niveles de confianza muy elevados no fueron publicados. Sin embargo, los ejemplos reanalizados aquí demuestran que series temporales de cicloestratigrafía pre-neogena contienen ciclos periódicos, muy probablemente asociados a forzamiento orbital.
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Lord, A.R. and Davis, P.G. 2010. Fossils from the Lower Lias of the Dorset Coast, Palaeontological Association Field Guide to Fossils 13, 444 pp.
Mann, M. E. and Lees, J. M. 1996. Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Climatic Change, 33, 409-445. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142586
Martinez, M., Kotov, S., De Vleeschouwer, D., Pas, D. and Pälike, H. 2016. Testing the impact of stratigraphic uncertainty on spectral analyses of sedimentary series. Climates Past, 12, 1765-1783. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1765-2016
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Meyers, S.R. 2019. Cyclostratigraphy and the problem of astrochronologic testing. Earth-Science Reviews, 190, 190-223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.11.015
Miller, C. J., Genovese, C., Nichol, R. C., Wasserman, L., Connolly, A., Reichart, D., Hopkins, A., Schneider, J. and Moore, A. 2001. Controlling the false-discovery rate in astrophysical data analysis. The Astronomical Journal, 122, 3492-3505. https://doi.org/10.1086/324109
Morgans-Bell, H.S., Coe, A.L., Hesselbo, S.P., Jenkyns, H.C., Weedon, G.P., Marshall, J.E.A., Tyson, R.V. and Williams, C.L. 2001. Integrated stratigraphy of the Kimmeridge Clay Formation (Upper Jurassic) based on exposures and boreholes in south Dorset, UK. Geological Magazine, 138, 511-539. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756801005738
Page, K.N. 2010. Stratigraphical framework. In: Lord, A.R. and Davis, P.G. (ed.), Fossils from the Lower Lias of the Dorset Coast, Palaeontological Association Field Guide to Fossils 13, 33-53.
Päike, H., Frazier, J. and Zachos, J.C. 2003. Extended orbitally forced palaeoclimatic records from the equatorial Atlantic Ceara Rise. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 3138-3149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.02.011
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Priestley, M.B. 1981: Spectral analysis and time series. Academic Press, London, 890 pp.
Proistosescu, C., Huybers, P. and Maloof, A. C. 2012. To tune or not to tune: detecting orbital variability in Oligo-Miocene climate records. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 325-326, 100-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.01.022
Ruddiman, W. F., Raymo, M. and McIntyre, A. 1986. Matuyama 41,000-year cycles: North Atlantic Ocean and northern hemisphere ice sheets. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 80, 117-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-821X(86)90024-5
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Shackleton, N.J., Crowhurst, S.J., Weedon, G.P. and Laskar, J. 1999. Astronomical calibration of Oligocene-Miocene time. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 357, 1907-1929. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1999.0407
Vandenberghe, N. 1978. Sedimentology of the Boom Clay (Rupelian) in Belgium. Proceedings of the Koninklijke Akademie voor Wetenschappen België, 40, 1-137.
Van Echelpoel, E. and Weedon, G.P. 1990. Milankovitch cyclicity and the Boom Clay Formation: an Oligocene siliciclastic shelf in Belgium. Geological Magazine, 127, 599-604. https://doi.org/10.1017/S001675680001551X
Vaughan, S., Bailey, R.J. and Smith, D.G. 2011. Detecting cycles in stratigraphic data: spectral analysis in the presence of red noise. Paleoceanography, 26, PA4211. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011PA002195
Vaughan, S., Bailey, R.J. and Smith, D.G. 2015. Cyclostratigraphy: data filtering as a source of spurious spectral peaks. In: Smith, D.G., Bailey, R.G., Burgess, P.M. and Fraser, A.J. (ed.) Strata and Time: Probing the Gaps in Our Understanding, 151-157. Special Publications 404 Geological Society, London. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP404.11
Vis, G-J., Verweij, H. and Koenen, M. 2016. The Rupel Clay Member in the Netherlands: towards a comprehensive understanding of its geometry and depositional environment. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 95, 221-251. https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2016.25
Weedon, G.P. 1986. Hemipelagic shelf sedimentation and climatic cycles: the basal Jurassic (Blue Lias) of South Britain. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 76, 321-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-821X(86)90083-X
Weedon, G.P. 1987. Palaeoclimatic significance of open-marine cyclic sequences. D. Phil. Thesis (in English) University of Oxford, 2 volumes available at: http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:aa009e6b-d429-4340-b3c5-30f5227f0148.
Weedon, G.P. 1989. The detection and illustration of regular sedimentary cycles using Walsh power spectra and filtering, with examples from the Lias of Switzerland. Journal of the Geological Society, London, 146, 133-144. https://doi.org/10.1144/gsjgs.146.1.0133
Weedon, G.P., 1997. Data Report. Measurements of magnetic susceptibility for the Oligocene and Lower Miocene of Site 925. Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, 154, 529-532. https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.sr.154.137.1997
Weedon, G.P., Shackleton, N.J. and Pearson, P.N. 1997. The Oligocene time scale and cyclostratigraphy on the Ceara Rise, western Equatorial Atlantic. Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, 154, 101-114. https://doi.org/10.2973/odp.proc.sr.154.103.1997
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